Vast beech forests in the Shirakami Mountains, a UNESCO World Heritage-listed natural site that straddles Akita and Aomori prefectures, could vanish by the end of this century due to global warming, according to researchers.
Their report on the future impact of climate change on the nation also warned that if greenhouse gas emissions remain at the current level, global warming will increase the damage caused by storm surges and cause torrential rain to fall more often.
The Environment Ministry commissioned 44 researchers from 14 institutes, including the National Institute for Environmental Studies and Ibaraki University, to conduct the study.
The researchers estimated the possible impacts that higher air temperatures would have on forests, water resources, agriculture, coastal regions and human health.
They used climate analysis models developed by Tokyo University’s Center for Climate System Research and the Meteorological Agency. Based on the center’s model, the study forecast the temperature would rise by 2.2 C from the present level during 2031-50 and 4.3 C during 2081-2100.
The university’s model predicted natural beech forests will decrease from the current level by 56 percent during 2031-50, and by 93 percent during 2081-2100. The researchers predicted beech forests will remain only in Hokkaido and Honshu’s mountainous areas. The Shirakami Mountains are home to one of the world’s largest beech forests.However, these forests will decrease by 97.1 percent between 2031 and 2050 and vanish entirely after 2081, the study said, because the trees will be unable to adapt to the increase in temperature fast enough.
The areas likely to bear the brunt of storm surges due to global warming include Tokyo, Osaka, the region near Ise Bay in Aichi and Mie prefectures and all of western Japan. The population at risk in these areas was 290,000 in 2000, but this figure is expected to increase to 520,000 in 2030 and 1.37 million in 2100, according to the study.
In 2030, torrential rain that until now usually hits the nation only once every 50 years will instead occur once every 30 years, the report said. Damage caused by flooding is forecast to increase by 1 trillion yen every year.
– From The Yomiuri Shimbun