Global food production today is cornucopian: More food, of greater diversity, is available to more people in more places than at any time in human history. At the same time, this food abundance has a dark underbelly. Some 828 million people—nearly ten percent of the human family—are chronically hungry, and two billion people lack critical micronutrients such as Vitamin A and iron. This juxtaposition of increasing abundance and chronic scarcity might suggest that ending hunger simply requires extending 20th century agricultural success to the entire human family. Is doubling down on such success the recipe for eliminating hunger across the Earth?
No, it’s not, because modern agricultural bounty has an Achilles’ heel—resource overshoot—that is poised to limit agricultural output. Expansion of irrigation and quality land are constrained by overuse of water and farmland. Add climate instability and the challenge to food abundance at the global level becomes clear. This, at a time when increased populations, richer diets, and expanded use of crops for fuel are driving up demand for agricultural products. The double challenge to the world’s farmers from growing demand and constrained supply poses an ever-rising obstacle to a sustainable agricultural system that can meet the needs of all the world’s people.
Global population increased more than 5-fold between 1900 and 2022 and is projected to expand by another 21 percent by 2050. But growth in raw population numbers is only part of the increase in agricultural demand. Dietary improvements and the pressure for biofuel production are also in play.
— source steadystate.org | Gary Gardner | Jun 1, 2023