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How much CO2 budget left for us


Greta Thunberg full speech at the National Assembly in Paris

jan 1 2018 we had 420 giga tonnes of co2 left in our co2 budget.
42 giga tonnes of co2 per year
no one telling these numbers. may be you are not mature enough to tell it like it is.

bonjour je m’appelle greeted him by a
mercy poor live it assume thank you all
for coming here by the way I have some
good news and some bad news regarding
the climate emergency I will start with
the good news the world as a small
number of people have been saying lately
will not end in 11 years the bad news
however is that around the year 2030 if
we continue with business as usual we
will likely be in a position where we
may pass a number of tipping points and
then we might no longer be able to undo
the irreversible climate breakdown a lot
of people a lot of politicians business
leaders journalists say they don’t agree
with what we are saying they say we
children are exaggerating that we are
alarmists to answer this I would like to
refer to page 108 chapter 2 in the
latest IPCC report there you will find
all our opinions summarized because
there you find a remaining carbon
dioxide budget right there it says that
if we are to have a 67 percent chance of
limiting the global temperature rise to
below 1.5 degrees we had on January 1st
2018 420 gigatons of carbon dioxide left
in our co2 budget and of course that
number is much lower today we emit about
42 gigatons of co2 every year
at current emissions levels that
remaining budget is gone within roughly
eight and a half years these numbers are
as real as it gets
though a great number of scientists
suggests that they are too generous
these are the ones that have been
accepted by all nations through the IPCC
and not once not one single time have I
heard any politician journalists or
business leader even mention these
numbers it is almost like you don’t even
know they exist as if you haven’t even
read the light latest IPCC reports on
which the future of our civilization is
depending or maybe you are simply not
mature enough to tell it like it is
because even that burden you leave to us
children we become the bad guys who have
to tell people these uncomfortable
things because no one else wants to or
dares to and just for quoting and acting
on these numbers these scientific facts
we receive unimaginable amounts of hate
and threats we are being mocked and lied
about by elected officials members of
Parliament’s business leaders
journalists what I really would like to
ask all of those who question our
so-called opinions or think that we are
extreme do you have a different budget
for at least a reasonable chance of
staying below the 1.5 degrees of warming
limit is there another intergovernmental
panel on climate change is there a
secret Paris agreement that we don’t
know about wonders that not the clued
the aspect of equity because these are
the numbers that counts
this is the current best available
science you can’t simply make up your
own facts just because you don’t like
what you hear there is no middle ground
when it comes to the climate and
ecological emergency of course you could
argue that we should go for a more risky
pathway such as the alternative of 580
gigatons of co2 from January 31st 2018
which gives us a 50/50 percent chance of
limiting the global temperature rise to
below 1.5 degrees that amount of carbon
dioxide will run out in about 12 years
of current business as usual but why
should we do that
why should we accept taking that risk
leaving the future living conditions for
humankind to a 50/50 flip of a coin 420
gigatons left of co2 to emit and now
that number is down to less than 360
gigatons and please note that these
figures are global and therefore do not
say anything about the aspect of equity
clearly stated throughout the Paris
agreement which is absolutely necessary
to make it work on a global scale that
means that richer countries need to get
down to zero emissions faster so the
people in poorer parts of the world can
heighten their standard of living by
building some of the infrastructure that
we have already built such as roads
hospitals electricity schools and
providing clean drinking water and
because you have ignored these facts
because you and pretty much all of the
media to this very minute
keep ignoring them people do not know
what is going on if you respect the
science if you understand the science
then this is it 420 gigatons of co2 left
to emit on January 1st to have a 67
percent chance of staying below a 1.5
degrees of global temperature rise
according to the IPCC in the Paris
agreement we have only signed up for
staying below 1.5 to 2 degrees of
temperature rise and that of course
gives us a bigger remaining carbon
dioxide budget but the latest IPCC
report shows that aiming instead for
below 1.5 degrees would significantly
reduce the climate impacts and that
would most certainly save countless of
human lives this is what is thought
about this is all that we are saying but
I will also tell you this
you cannot solve the crisis without
treating it as a crisis without seeing
the full picture you cannot leave the
responsibility to individuals
politicians the market or other parts of
the world to take this has to include
everything and everyone once you realize
how painfully small the size of our
remaining carbon dioxide budget is once
you realize how fast it is disappearing
once you realize that basically nothing
is being done about it and once you
realize that almost no one is even aware
of the fact that carbon dioxide budgets
even exists then tell me what exactly do
you do and how do we do it without
sounding alarmist that is the question
we must ask ourselves and the people in
power the science is clear and all we
children are doing is communicating and
acting on that united science now
political leaders in some countries are
starting to talk they are starting to
declare climate emergencies and
announcing dates for so-called climate
neutrality and declaring a climate
emergency is good but only setting up
these vague distant dates and saying
things which give the impression of the
things are being done and that action is
on the way will most likely do more harm
than good because of the changes
required are still nowhere in sight not
in France not in the EU nowhere and I
believe that the biggest danger is not
our inaction the real danger is when
companies and politicians are making it
looked like real action
is happening when in fact almost nothing
is being done
apart from clever accounting and creates
at PR the climate an ecological
emergency is right here right now but it
has only just begun
it will get worse 420 gigatons of co2
left to emit on january 1st 2018 to have
a 67 percent chance of staying below a
1.5 degrees of global temperature rise
and now that figure is already down to
less than 360 gigatons at current
emissions levels that remaining budget
is gone within roughly eight and a half
years in fact since I started this
speech the world has emitted about
800,000 tons of carbon dioxide and if
anyone still has excuses not to listen
not to act not to care I ask you once
again
is there another Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change is there a secret
Paris agreement that we don’t know about
one that does not include the aspect of
equity do you have a different budget
for at least a reasonable chance of
staying below 1.5 degrees of global
temperature rise some people have chosen
not to come here today
some people have chosen not to listen to
us and that is fine we are after all
just children you don’t have to listen
to us but you do have to listen to the
United science the scientists and that
is all we ask just unite behind the
science now

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