UK greenhouse emissions have been growing in line with the economy. This is dependent on emissions from aviation, shipping and imported goods being counted. At the moment they are excluded under the internationally agreed system for carbon accounts. Both reports are from the respected Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) based at the University of York. They are a massive blow to the British government which claimed to have grasped the Holy Grail of climate policy – de-coupling economic growth from emissions growth.
An SEI report to be published shortly by the campaign group WWF will suggest that the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions are 49% higher than reported emissions. And a recent little-noticed report for the government department Defra showed that rather than going down 5% as ministers claimed, CO2 emissions have gone up 18% between 1992 and 2004 when all emissions are counted. The government sat on the Defra SEI report since February, tested its calculations, then published it in an obscure press release on 2 July.
This confirms, that the UK’s apparently virtuous carbon cuts have only been achieved because we are getting countries like China to do our dirty work. Some would say this allows them to be blamed for increasing their CO2 emissions on UK’s behalf.
The Defra-SEI report shows that as manufacturing in the UK has closed down, some of the production has shifted to countries where manufacturing is more carbon intensive than it would be here – in other words, more CO2 is emitted per unit of production. At the same time, the long consumer boom has led to an increase in the volume and diversity of products being imported. This in turn leads to increased emissions from cargo shipping. Meanwhile, the cheap flights bonanza has pushed up emissions still higher. Under internationally agreed methodology, emissions from international aviation, shipping and imports are not included in a country’s greenhouse gas statistics, so this has allowed the UK government to calculate that its greenhouse gases have been falling.
WWF says the new figures are “breathtaking” and make a mockery of the UK’s claims of global leadership. Stuart Bond, WWF’s head of research, said: “This shows our claims on emissions are simply a big lie. “The government has known about this for a very long time but has just refused to face up to it. “There is no way the government can hope to achieve any of its emissions targets without cheating unless it changes its policies on encouraging flying and hoping to satisfy people’s insatiable demands for buying more and more stuff.”
A Defra source said of its SEI report: “It can’t be absolutely precise but it is a best estimate of where we are. It is very much in line with other studies on the subject so we are fairly confident of it. It is very interesting background information.” The source said that it would be impossible to include the catch-all SEI figure alongside the UK’s annual official emissions statistics because it was based on import/export figures from the Office of National Statistics which would not be updated until 2010.
John Barrett, author of the SEI reports to both Defra and WWF, said they could have implications for any post-Kyoto global climate deal. “Holding China and India responsible for emissions from manufactured goods they sell to us is going to prove very hard to negotiate. “It would be much easier to base any future deal on emissions at the point of consumption. That feeds into the equity debate in which poor countries will be allowed to increase their CO2.
The Defra source said it would be almost impossible to negotiate a new climate deal based on consumer nations taking responsibility for the emissions created from manufacturing the goods they import. The government’s new Climate Change Committee under Adair Turner may advise by the end of the year whether the government should include imported emissions in its CO2 inventory.
SEI says:
* Under the Kyoto protocol accounting, the UK’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2004 were 657 million tonnes
* Total GHG emissions including imports and excluding exports in 2004 were 979 million tonnes
* Our consumer-based GHG emissions are 49% higher than our Kyoto-reported emissions
Trends show that:
* Between 1992 and 2004, Kyoto GHG emissions report a decrease of 13%
* Between 1992 and 2004, consumer-based GHG emissions increased by 13%.
The increase for overall greenhouse gases is higher than the CO2 increase because it counts methane from agriculture at a time when the UK rapidly increased meat imports.
– from news.bbc.co.uk